MoulMallTools
Safety stock · 2026

Stop guessing your inventory buffer.

Free safety stock calculator with simple and service-level (advanced) formulas. Enter demand variability, lead-time variability and a target service level — we compute exactly how many units to hold as a buffer.

Live calculatorRecomputes as you type

Results update live as you type.

Safety stock

140.5units

3.5 days of average sales covered

Healthy buffer
Lead-time demand (D × LT)560 units
Reorder point (ROP)700.5 units
Service level (95%)Z = 1.64

Formula

Safety stock = Z × √(LT × σD² + D² × σLT²)

Reference: Morocco (MAD). Safety stock is unit-based — no currency conversion needed.

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🚨

Stockouts are expensive

Every out-of-stock day costs you direct sales, plus wasted ad spend pushing traffic to a sold-out page, plus lost customer trust.

💸

Overstock is also expensive

Holding too much buffer ties up cash, inflates storage fees and risks obsolescence. Safety stock should be just enough.

🎯

Service level is the dial

The target service level (e.g. 95%) lets you trade capital efficiency against stockout risk — per SKU, not per warehouse.

How it works

4 steps to the right buffer

1

Measure your demand

Pull 30–90 days of sales for the SKU. Compute average daily sales (D) and, if you can, the standard deviation (σD).

2

Confirm lead time

Get average supplier lead time (LT) and, if possible, historical variability (σLT) — how late it arrives on bad weeks.

3

Pick a service level

95% is the standard default. Critical SKUs → 99%. Slow-movers → 90%. The higher the service level, the more capital is tied up in stock.

4

Hold the buffer

Keep the computed safety stock on hand, and combine with lead-time demand to get the reorder point.

Simple mode

Rule-of-thumb formula

Safety stock = Avg daily sales × Buffer days

Quick and dirty. Use this when you don't have reliable historical data on demand or lead-time variability. A common default is 3–7 buffer days; bump it up for unreliable suppliers or volatile categories.

Advanced · service level

King / normal-distribution formula

SS = Z × √( LT × σD² + D² × σLT² )
  • Z · Z-score of your service level (e.g. 1.65 for 95%)
  • LT · average lead time (days)
  • σD · std dev of daily demand
  • D · average daily demand
  • σLT · std dev of lead time

Reference

Service level → Z-score

Service levelZ-scoreStockouts / 20 cyclesTypical use
90%1.28~ 2Slow-movers, low margin
95%1.65~ 1Standard e-commerce SKU
97.5%1.96~ 0.5Important SKUs
99%2.33~ 0.2Hero products
99.9%3.09~ 0.02Pharma, safety, critical

Localized

Choose your country

Safety stock is unit-based so it doesn't depend on currency — but we ship a localized page per country for consistency.

FAQ

Safety stock — questions answered

What is safety stock?
Safety stock is the extra inventory held on top of your average lead-time demand to absorb two kinds of uncertainty: demand spikes (you sell more than expected) and supplier delays (your PO arrives late). Without it, even small variations cause stockouts.
What is the safety stock formula?
The standard service-level formula is: Safety stock = Z × √(LT × σD² + D² × σLT²), where Z is the Z-score of your target service level, LT is average lead time, σD is the standard deviation of daily demand, D is average daily demand and σLT is the standard deviation of lead time. A simpler approximation is: Safety stock = Average daily sales × Buffer days.
What service level should I target?
For most e-commerce SKUs, 95% is a good default — it means you accept about one stockout every 20 replenishment cycles. Critical SKUs (pharma, safety, hero products) can target 99% or 99.9%. Slow-moving or low-margin items may be fine at 90%. Higher service levels exponentially increase the capital tied up in stock.
What is a Z-score in safety stock?
The Z-score is the number of standard deviations of demand variability you want to cover. Common values: Z = 1.28 for 90% service, Z = 1.65 for 95%, Z = 1.96 for 97.5%, Z = 2.33 for 99%, Z = 3.09 for 99.9%.
How do I estimate demand standard deviation (σD)?
Take your last 30–90 days of daily sales for the SKU, compute the standard deviation in Excel (STDEV.P) or in a spreadsheet. A rule of thumb: for stable SKUs σD ≈ 20% × average daily sales; for volatile SKUs it can reach 50–80%.

Safety stock calculator — by country